CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-08-18T22:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-08-18T22:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26563/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3, as well as in STEREO A COR2 difference imagery. This CME overlaps with the CME first seen to the NW in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2023-08-18T19:48Z. The source of this CME is a C3.0 class flare from AR13409 (~N21W42) and associated filament eruption. The filament appears to have two parts erupt, an initial little arch of filament material related to the start of the flare and a more thick stream of filament material lifting off while the flare is nearing its peak. This is best seen in GOES SUVI 304, but is also visible in SDO/AIA 304 and 193 imagery. There is no obvious arrival across all solar wind parameters.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-22T17:15Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 1.5 - 3.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: -12099.68 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-01-07T20:56Z
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